Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 16 Oct 2011 09:00 to Mon 17 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Oct 2011 09:32
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for parts of the E Mediterranean for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Bulgaria, Romania and the Bosporus region for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A deepening low pressure system S of Iceland moves slowly eastwards, affecting the British Isles and Ireland on Monday. The cold front associated with this system may allow some showers and thunderstorms along the extreme northern parts of UK and Ireland. Nevertheless, most of the strong to severe wind gusts in this region will be due to the strong pressure gradient force.

An upper level cut-off low, filled with cold air, is located west of the Bosporus region and also affects parts of Greece and the Aegean Sea / eastern Mediterranean. South of Crete, deep layer shear is relatively strong and organised severe thunderstorms are not ruled out. The main threat should be isolated large hail / isolated severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as high SRH1 and SRH3 are forecast and the cloud base should be relatively low.

Low-end instability but strong forcing and strong southerly winds may lead to a continuous development of thunderstorms in the eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria. A level 1 was introduced for excessive convective precipitation in this area.