Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 11 Oct 2011 06:00 to Wed 12 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Oct 2011 23:25
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for Aegean sea and SW Turkey mainly for waterspouts, tornado, stron wind gusts and excessive convective rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Germany, northern Czech Republic and western Poland mainly for strong wind gusts and brief tornado.

SYNOPSIS

The main feature today will be a large-scale upper trough with deep surface low centered over Scandinavia, where a frontal zone is extending from the Baltics towards Germany, only slowly moving southeast. A decaying upper low remains quasi-stationary over western Turkey and brings another day of convective activity there. The main cold front pushes further east into extreme SE Madetteranean. A ridge persists over WSW Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean sea and SW Turkey ...

Yet another active day over the SE Mediterranean. The main activity will be pushed further over southern Turkey along the cold front, while cold mid levels will support deep convection in weakly sheared environment in the wake of the front. Still good overlaping with instability and shear could support organized multicells and supercells over southern Turkish coast, capable of producing a tornado/wind event and excessive convective rainfalls.
Further west across the level 1, weak wind field, steep LL lapse rates and few hundreds of CAPE could support a few waterspouts and locally excessive rain as well.

... parts of central Germany, northern Czech Republic and western Poland ...

Quite some uncertainities and tricky setup for these areas, as the slow moving surface front could be a focus for some convection. Models are showing very poor LL moisture and therefore only marginal instability possible to release, while very strong wind field will result in strongly sheared environment. If storms manage to form, they will gain organization. HiRes models suggest that convective line cannot be excluded along the front either. With very strong LL shear and enhanced SREH, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out while locally some intense rain and strong to severe wind gusts are possible.

... the Baltics are surrounding areas, western Norway...

Very cold mid levels over still warm Baltic sea should result in moderate instability and therefore some convective storms will likely occur behind the front. A rather strong winds and linear hodographs might support line of storms going onshore from the Baltic sea, bringing some excessive rain into the coast areas of Baltic states.

Similar activity over western Norway, polar airmass should support some convection combined with orographic precipitation onshore. High precipitation accumulations are likely there.