Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Oct 2011 06:00 to Mon 03 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 01 Oct 2011 14:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The forecast remains straightforward as ridging remains in place. In fact, the European ridge reveals the highest blocking index strength in the Northern Hemisphere and does so for at least the following 36h.

Hence no major changes are expected regarding thunderstorm activity. A broad high pressure area keeps most parts of Europe stable and dry.

The upper low over the far SW-Mediterranean gradually decays as a consequence of increasing WAA downstream of a cut-off west of Portugal. We again highlight that region with a thunderstorm area but this time only with a 15-% area due to increasingly hostile conditions for scattered thunderstorm initiation.

The bulk of activity shifts to the Ionian Sea as a cold-core low arrives. Some modest destabilization is expected and scattered non-severe thunderstorms are forecast, which keep going all day long.