Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 14 Sep 2011 06:00 to Thu 15 Sep 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 13 Sep 2011 21:08
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Sweden, Latvia and Estonia mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The large circulation of decaying ex-hurricane Katia still steers numerous disturbances to the east, which affect N/NE-Europe. The wind field remains pretty strong, especially below 3 km AGL, but limited BL moisture keeps thunderstorm probabilities quite low. Despite showers/isolated thunderstorms having the ability to produce severe wind gusts, limited TSTM coverage precludes a level area for all of the 15-% thunderstorm area. An isolated tornado may occur within the level 1 areas due to some shear/CAPE overlap. Only those spots, where somewhat better CAPE exist, will be included into a level 1. The activity diminishes after sunset.

Further south, a slowly southward moving cold front may spark a few multicells just south of the Alps with isolated large hail/strong wind gusts due to somewhat enhanced shear. Local model data also indicates a few more intense pulse storms over central Italy with heavy rainfall being the main risk. Storms gradually weaken after sunset.

Otherwise, no more widespread severe risk exists.