Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 02 Aug 2011 12:00 to Wed 03 Aug 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 Aug 2011 11:59
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 2 was issued for extreme NE Spain into south-central France mainly for large hail (a significant event possible), isolated tornadoes, severe winds and excessive convective rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for the rest of France and parts of northern Spain mainly for isolated large hail, intense rain and strong wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the eastern Marocco, Algeria into SW Mediterranean mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to the original storm forecast.

DISCUSSION

... France into NE Iberia ...

Despite the quite impressive wind profiles, morning skew-t diagram reveal strongly capped environment across the eastern Iberia and its likely to expect that cap will remain strong today again. So a level areas has been adjust accordingly over these areas. Will maintain the level 2 across the Pyrenees into extreme NE Spain where storms seem more likely to form over the mountainous terrain of western Ebro valley as well.

The rest of the forecast is on track with only some minor adjustments to the lightning areas. Healthy BL moisture is recovering across the southern France with LL mixing ratio already around 12 g/kg. This should countinue advecting N-wards during the day and storms are expected to take place by mid afternoon hours.