Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 29 Jun 2011 15:00 to Thu 30 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 29 Jun 2011 15:05
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for parts of Eastern and Northeastern Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Northern Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Southwestern Russia, Belarus and Northeastern Poland mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to the original forecast.

DISCUSSION

Minor changes have been made to the lightning areas.


... Eastern/Northeastern Spain ...

Deep convection has initiated over this region, proving that high CIN values might be overcome via strong low level convergence. Murcia 12 UTC sounding reveals strong CIN, but much weaker than on 00 UTC measurement. Storms forming in strong DLS and moderate SREH, might attain good organisation and supercells are well possible in such setup. Main threats should be large hail in case of supercells and severe wind gusts, thanks to the relatively dry airmass and high LCLs. Low coverage of storms will likely limit the threat but Level 1 seems warranted at the moment.