Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 19 Jun 2011 06:00 to Mon 20 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jun 2011 03:47
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

A level 2 was issued for parts of Romania, Ukraine and Belarus mainly for more widespread severe wind gusts, a few significant/damaging events possible.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 and was issued mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and a few tornado events.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Poland, the Czech Republic and parts of Austria mainly for a few large hail reports.

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the main outlook.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of N-Germany ...

Update became necessary due to an augmented severe wind gust risk until 15 Z. Latest remote sensing data reveals a gradually consolidating depression over the North Sea with a well developed dry slot in progress. Back-bent occlusion already has first signs of banded structures and latest high resolution models now also agree fairly well in a more solid line of convection, crossing the level 1 rapidly towards the east. Severe wind gusts will be the primary risk. Maximized directional shear at lowest 1 km will be somewhat displaced to the south, however enough overlap in speed/directional shear exists for an isolated tornado event. Overall risk gradually diminishes over NE-Germany, as CAPE vanishes.

No serious modification was done to the rest of the level areas despite minor, cosmetic changes.