Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Jun 2011 06:00 to Thu 16 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Jun 2011 05:33
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A weak ridge at mid-levels stretches from Southwestern to Central Europe while a shallow but large-scale trough slowly filling in cover most of Eastern and Southeastern Europe. This trough is characterised by cool mid-level temperatures, which is one of the key factors regarding the development of instability over the region. Farther to the west, a cyclonic vortex resides over Atlantic and its trough will start influencing weather over Western Europe with strong flow at mid and upper levels. A short-wave trough is forecast to translate from Southern Scandinavia to the Baltic States and subsequently Western Russia during the day.


Closer to the surface, dominant feature is a deep low over Atlantic and a large surface ridge stretching into Southwestern Iberia and Central Mediterranean. Shallow low pressure system is forecast over Eastern Europe.

Again, a broad region of latent instability development, marginal to moderate in degree is forecast over much of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. No apparent synoptic or mesoscale trigger makes the prediction of intitiation very difficult albeit it will likely be tied to the local circulations created by the orographic features. Lack of stronger vertical wind profiles will limit the chances of well organised storms to almost a zero and mostly chaotic multicells are forecast. Especially over the mountainous areas of Southern Italy or Southeastern Europe, slow storm movement in combination with some local foci for storm initiation might result in some excessive precipitation and at the same time, very isolated marginally severe hail can occur with stronger multicells. Nevertheless, threat should be too marginal and spotty to warrant a Level 1 at the moment.