Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 May 2011 06:00 to Thu 19 May 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 May 2011 21:20
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level one threat was issued for western Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level one threat was issued for W Turkey mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Two upper cut-off lows are present over the southern parts of Europe: one has its center west of Iberia, the other is centered over the S Adriatic. Surrounded by warm and unstable air, most thunderstorms should be associated with either of the both systems. Overall deep layer shear in this region is significantly lower than on Tuesday.

Ahead of the low pressure system over the Adriatic, some isolated severe hail / wind gust events can be expected over western / southwestern Turkey.

Another region of possible severe weather is western Russia. An approaching shortwave trough leads to strong QG forcing in an environment with 15 - 20 m/s 0-3 km shear, some 10 - 15 m/s LLS and some hundred J/kg CAPE. The primary threat should be severe wind gusts but one or two tornadoes are possible as well. Most of the convection should be surface-based and diurnally driven, therefore the severe wind / tornado threat will decline after sunset.