Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 03 May 2011 06:00 to Wed 04 May 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 02 May 2011 23:49
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A rather complex scenario unfolds across Europe on Tuesday. The main features are a large closed upper-level low over northern Europe and Scandinavia and a short-wave trough moving into southern Balkans. At surface, an attendant weak low moves from southern Italy into Greece. Another weak upper/SFC low will be a focus for some convective activity over western Russia.

... southern Balkans ...

Storms will form ahead of the moving short-wave trough where at least marginal forcing will be present in the first half of the forecast period. A combination of strong EML and diurnal heating will then result in several hundres of CAPE, partly overlaping with moderate shear. Expect a few organized storms with threat for marginally large hail and strong winds. Rather high moisture content could also support some intense rain threat. But overall, threat level 1 seem not to be warranted attm.

... E Spain, the Alps, south-central Italy, N Africa ...

Mostly diurnal driven showers and thunderstorms are expected in weakly capped environment over the highlighted areas. Wind shear remains very weak, so no organized storms are expected. Convection will be triggered along the pre-existing boundaries and local convergence zones in the complex mountainous terrain. Additional focus for convective intiation will also be a weak southwards moving frontal boundary around the Alps. Some of the storms could bring intense rain and small hail given the cool midlevels. Larger hail might be possible with storms across the eastern Iberia given the higher intability and some sparks of weak shear (<10 m/s). Storms will diminish after sunset as instability vanishes.