Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Apr 2011 06:00 to Wed 27 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Apr 2011 23:59
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

Unsettled conditions prevail across much of central Europe. The main feature today will again be the low geopotentials across Mediterranean and central Europe with embedded two upper lows. The largest one centered over southern Italy and a small cut-off low retreating SW-wards into southern Germany. At surface, a weak surface low is maintaining over southern Mediterranean sea.

DISCUSSION

... western Czech Republic, southern Germany, Austria ...

These areas will be under the quite cold mid-levels where several hundreds of MLCAPE will result with daytime heating. With only weakly capped BL, scattered showers and thunderstorms will form by early afternoon. Vertical wind shear seems rather limited against the day before, a narrow zone of slightly higher values lie across Austria. Expect rather slow moving cells with threat for marginally large hail and a few strong wind gusts, as well as locally intense rainfall.

... southern Mediterranean ...

An EML with very steep lapse rates continues spreading towards Greece. However, with favorable divergence aloft, a deep convection is likely to take place along the surface front over Ionian sea. Though, only marginal instability seem to be release in moderately sheared environment. Better organized storms could support strong wind gusts, but severe threat level is not warranted attm. Storms with locally intense rain are also possible around Sicily beneath the center of upper low. Weak wind field could also spin a waterspout or two there.

... other highlighted areas ...

Diurnal driven convection is expected over mountainous terrain of N Italy/W Alps as well as eastern Spain and the Balkans. The strongest cells might support small hail besides the heavy rain showers/storms.