Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Apr 2011 06:00 to Wed 20 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Apr 2011 19:56
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The dominant feature on Tuesday is the moderate ridging over much of south central Europe. On its edges, two upper lows will be the focus for convective activity. One remaining quasi stationary over eastern Aegean sea / western Turkey where only marginal diurnal activity is expected in non-sheared environment.

Another developing potent upper low NW of Iberia and moving southwards will be the main focus for convection over Iberian peninsula. A surface cold front will set west of peninsula. SW flow ahead of the this cold front will continue advecting warm airmass northwards across the peninsula, resulting in unstable airmass. Several hundreds of MLCAPE will result but given the rather limited deep layer shear, severe storms are unlikely. A lack of large scale ascent will also limit the activity. But however, the complex topography should trigger convection over parts of Spain and Portugal as a result of strong daytime heating. Slightly better shear is located over southern Iberia where the strongest cells could become briefly organized with threat for some marginally large hail but not reaching severe criteria. Activity will be mostly diurnal driven and should diminish after sunset.