Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 Apr 2011 06:00 to Tue 12 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Apr 2011 21:02
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

An Atlantic upper trough and an attendant cold front will cross the British Isles on Monday and migrate into central Europe by Tuesday morning. The low-level flow beneath and ahead of this system are rather anticyclonic, which appears to be related to strong low-level cold advection in the wake of the front. A plume of mild and modestly moist air is present E of this system.

... DISCUSSION ...

... France ... Germany ...

It seems that the deep-layer lift along the cold front will be non-existent to negative, presumably due to strong deep-layer cold-air advection. Confidence in convective development over France and western Germany along and ahead of the cold front is thus quite low. Better QG ascent should materialize across southern Germany into southern France early Tuesday morning, and model guidance does suggest some precip
to develop along the cold front ... but it seems that by that time, no instability will be left and the convective threat should be accordingly low.

... western Mediterranean into the NE Maghreb States ...

Isolated thunderstorms may accompany the small upper low over the W Mediterranean. This system should support more widespread convective storms over the NE Maghreb late in the day. A few strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany this activity but the overall threat seems to be too small for a LVL1 area.