Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 28 Mar 2011 06:00 to Tue 29 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Mar 2011 21:25
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

Two upper frontal zones are evident in the upper-air analyses ... one curving cyclonically across the northern portions of Europe and another, weaker one extending across Iberia and the Medirerranean Sea. At low levels, a largely stationary baroclinic zone is running from the British Isles across central Europe into the Black-Sea region. South of this boundary, weakly unstable air is present which may support scattered thunderstorms on Monday.

... DISCUSSION ...

A southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the central Mediterranean on Monday, which should be a focus for convective development. There will be some 20 m/s DLS associated with this feature, but the instability should remain very weak. Best chances for briefly-organized convection should unfold over S Italy, the S Adriatic Sea, and the extreme N Ionian Sea. However, given the minimal thermodynamic support, the severe threat seems to be rather low. An isolated wind gust briefly approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out, but a categorical risk is not introduced at this time.

Elsewhere, shear and instability will be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat.