Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Mar 2011 06:00 to Mon 28 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Mar 2011 19:18
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

...Bay of Biscay, Iberia, NW Mediterranean...

An upper cut-off low over the Bay of Biscay is forecast to move towards the Gulf of Genoa until Monday morning. A few hundred J/kg CAPE are forecast in the vicinity of the upper cold core and also within the warm airmass over N-central France. 0-3 km bulk shear stays well below 10 m/s in those places where instability is maximized and 0-6 km bulk shear reaches values around 20 m/s over the N Mediterranean. Most of the instability is located away from local shear maxima and therefore only isolated marginally severe hail / marginally severe wind gusts are expected to occur.

...Bosporus region, Aegean Sea...

Remnants of a weak upper low are present over the E Mediterranean. Some 200 - 500 J/kg CAPE may be in place and isolated thunderstorms may develop. Rather weak shear should preclude severe weather but an isolated waterspout can't be ruled out.