Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Mar 2011 06:00 to Tue 22 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 20 Mar 2011 19:29
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A deep longwave trough over the eastern portions of Europe
will slowly expand westwards ... with rising geopotential to its
north, resulting in an evolving high-over-low pattern late in the
period. At the surface, this evolution will be accompanied by a
strengthening of the extensive central-European high-pressure
area.

... DISCUSSION ...

... southeastern Mediterranean ...

Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist south of the
westward expanding Mediterranean upper low in a weakly
sheared and weakly unstable environment. LL CAPE may be
sufficient to support a few waterspouts.

... Iberian Peninsula ...

Weak CAPE is simulated to develop over Iberia, though this
will depend on the effectiveness of the advection of coastal
moisture inland. Current observations suggest that GFS
is significantly overestimating the boundary-layer moisture.
Upward motion should increase ahead of the westward-
extending upper trough, which could support scattered
thunderstorms during and after peak-heating hours. Shear and
instability would be too weak to support an appreciable severe-
thunderstorm threat. However, limited moisture may turn out to
prevent the development deep convection altogether.