Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 18 Mar 2011 06:00 to Sat 19 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Mar 2011 12:49
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Low geopotential heights cover all of Europe. The air mass is not conducive for widespread thunderstorm development despite SE Europe. There, adequate LL moisture beneath gradually cooling mid-levels result in 500 to 800 J/kg MLCAPE within a weakly sheared environment. Only parts of the west coast of Turkey may see an isolated better organized thunderstorm event due to 15-20 m/s DLS and large hail / strong wind gusts may accompany those storms. Otherwise heavy rainfall, marginal hail and gusty wind will be the main hazard. Thunderstorms over the N/NE Aegean Sea keep going well into the night due to the warm SSTs, whereas the activity over the central Mediterranean, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria and parts of Serbia and Montenegro probably peaks during the afternoon/early evening hours.