Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 12 Mar 2011 06:00 to Sun 13 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Mar 2011 03:56
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Warm air is marching northwards into western Europe with a southerly flow established by low pressure from the Iberian Peninsula to the British Isles, and high pressure over southeastern Europe. An active but slow-moving low within the warm air affects northeastern Spain and southern France with abundant stratiform rain. Sums could reach 50 mm with 100 mm possible in 24 hours near east/south sides of higher terrain due to upslope moisture lifting. The convective factor in this practically absent with only weak 0-3 km CAPE predicted along the coast, hence no level was issued for excessive convective precipitation.
In the northwest and south and perhaps the center of the Iberian Peninsula, a few hundred J/kg CAPE exist with EL heights of -40°C and no capping, which can lead to some thundershowers with a short lifespan as vertical shear is missing.