Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 11 Mar 2011 06:00 to Sat 12 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Mar 2011 18:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive low pressure area is situated over N-Europe with another one anchored west of Portugal. Weak geopotential height gradients are present over the Mediterranean and E-Europe. The main inhibiting factor for thunderstorm development will be shallow moisture over most parts of Europe with somewhat better PWAT values present W/SW of Portugal.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast SW of Portugal. Weak shear precludes organized thunderstorms, so main risk will be isolated heavy rainfall with slow moving storms.

A very isolated and short-lived thunderstorm could evolve over N-Poland at peak time heating but warm ELs hint on shallow updrafts with limited electrification probabilities. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard.

Otherwise, no organized thunderstorm risk is forecast.