Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 06 Mar 2011 06:00 to Mon 07 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Mar 2011 09:36
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A rather intense upper longwave trough over the eastern
portions of Europe will dig southwards, reaching the eastern
Mediterranean late on Sunday ... where it will merge with an
upper frontal zone that is extending across the N Maghreb
States and the southern Mediterranean Sea.
Off the Iberian Peninsula over Atlantic waters, a quasi-
stationary upper low persists. Elsewhere over Europe, hostile
conditions for deep convection exist, due mainly to a sprawling
high-pressure area that keeps advecting dry and cold air into
much of central and eastern Europe.

... DISCUSSION ...

... western Iberia ...

Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist in the vicinity of the
Atlantic upper low. Although most of the activity should stay off-
shore, a few showers and thunderstorms will likely occur over
the western parts of Iberia, especially during/after peak heating
hours. Weak CAPE/shear suggest that the severe threat will be
low, though rather strong LL buoyancy off-shore could support
a waterspout or two.

... southern Ionian/Aegean regions ...

Ahead of the digging E-European upper trough, comparatively
shallow storms may develop over the S Ionian and S Aegean
regions Sunday night/early Monday morning. Minimal instability
and shear will preclude any organized severe threat ... also, the
majority of the convection may be non-electrified. However,
rather strong LL buoyancy may support a few waterpouts.