Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Mar 2011 06:00 to Thu 03 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Mar 2011 00:08
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A complex synoptic scenario dominates Europe. At midlevels, mid-level ridge protruding zonally from Atlantic into Western Europe divides the zone of an extensive but shallow zone of low geopotentials centered over the Western Mediterranean and to the north of the ridge, in a strong zonal flow, series of short-wave troughs that should quickly move towards Northeastern Europe are simulated. The most prominent of the short-wave troughs with an embedded jet-stream at its forward flank will be associated with a deep low which will travel over Northern Scandinavia in the afternoon and evening hours. To the south of the deep low, strong pressure gradient should result in a very strong flow with windspeeds over 40 m/s at 850 hPa in the most intense belt. Coastal areas of Central Norway will likely experience hurricane-force wind gusts during the late afternoon hours. A large high pressure system will stretch from Great Britain, Northern Sea into the Baltic Sea and subsequently Central Russia. To the south of this system a stationary shallow low will slowly fill during the forecast period, centered approximately over Sardegna.

Rather cool, stable and dry airmass is forecast over most of Europe. The only regions that might experience isolated thunderstorm activity is the Tyrrhenian Sea, Ionian Sea and the southern part of the Adriatic Sea. Models seem to agree on the low-end instability built-up, comprising several hundred J/kg. This instability is likely the result of the cold mid-level temperatures overspreading the region in the proximity of a core of a mid and upper-level low. Along with mostly weak wind shear, poorly organised, non-severe deep moist convection is forecast. Severe threat should be very low in all of the areas that experience thunderstorms and no level is warranted at the moment.