Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 26 Feb 2011 06:00 to Sun 27 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Feb 2011 04:05
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Between large high pressure areas over the Atlantic Ocean and over cold Eastern Europe, a surface low pressure area and mid level trough pass over UK, N France, Benelux. Rain stays around for a long period over the UK and Benelux as the low becomes stationary and sends a backbent occlusion after the cold front. Behind its cold front, weak CAPE passes over S UK and N France with EL temperatures of -30°C can lead to showers, a few with thunder. A jet exit over western France provides forcing over the southern part of the unstable airmass. Shear will be rather weak.
A cut-off upper low sinks into the southern Mediterranean Sea around Sicily. The airmass should gradually destabilize in the area, with forcing provided by the strong differential vorticity advection and forming of a cold front south of Sicily.