Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Feb 2011 06:00 to Tue 22 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Feb 2011 08:51
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

An extensive, cold high pressure area is sprawling across
the eastern and central portions of the forecast area. An
upper frontal zone is stretching from the Atlantic across the
Mediterranean, with an imbedded trough, analyzed over Iberia
on Sunday evening, digging into the central Mediterranean on
Monday. This feature will maintain a weak SFC low over the
central/northern Mediterranean.

... DISCUSSION ...

... SW Mediterranean ...

Strong synoptic-scale forcing for ascent and sufficiently steep
lapse rates/moisture should instigate scattered thunderstorms
over the W Mediterranean early in the period. It seems that
rather strong low-level buoyancy will exist, suggesting that a
few waterspouts could occur, although rather brisk gradient flow could prove detrimental to waterspout formation. Along the
N coast of Algeria, rather strong frictionally-induced low-level
shear will exist. There could thus be a narrow window where
strong LLS and convection can coexist. This could result in a
brief spin-up of a tornado. However, the overall probabilities of
severe weather are too low for a LVL1 threat.

... S Adriatic Sea ... Ionian Sea ... Aegean Sea ...

Scattered thunderstorms should develop in the warm sector
of the N-Mediterranean low ahead of the approaching upper
trough. It seems that instability will be marginal and somewhat
shallow. However, DLS should be in the 15-20 m/s range
over the southern parts of the highlighted area, so perhaps an
isolated wind gust approaching severe limits and some hail
could occur.

Over the eastern Aegean, the LLS should increase beyond
10 m/s towards early Tuesday morning. However, DLS in this
region will be rather weak. It thus seems that the overall severe
threat is rather low, although an isolated/brief tornado cannot be discounted.