Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Feb 2011 06:00 to Sun 20 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Feb 2011 02:28
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for southern Turkey and Cyprus for a chance of tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
Blocking high pressure is present over Scandinavia and eastwards. A ridge provides calm conditions over Western Europe. A significant low pressure area shifts from the central to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, affecting Greece, Turkey and Cyprus with rain and thunderstorms. A weak cold front belonging to an Atlantic low moves slowly into the Iberian peninsula, western France and British isles.
DISCUSSION
...southern Turkey, Cyprus...
At 06Z, a cold front embedded in a very strong deep layer shear (40 m/s 0-6 km) and storm-relative helicity (>250 mē/sē) environment just leaves the map, but will cross mentioned areas in the following hours. At the cold front, there is only slight CAPE present in GFS, but there is potential for further destabilization given the vertical theta-e gradient (potential instability) and convergence. A tornado could be produced but also marginally severe wind gusts could occur if a linear storm forms. Precipitation sums could locally reach some tens of mm.
