Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:00 to Tue 15 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:56
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A high-over low upper flow pattern is present over the southern parts of Europe, with a ridge over central Europe and an upper low over the central Mediterranean. A deep Atlantic upper trough is slowly pushing east but will effectively be blocked by the central-European ridge.
The southern branch of the upper frontal zone will stretch across the S/E Mediterranean, where DCVA should instigate weak cyclogenesis on Monday.
At the surface, a deep and extensive SFC low is covering much of the E Atlantic and cold high pressure persists over N Europe and Russia.


... DISCUSSION ...

... western Mediterranean Sea ...

Minimal instability is anticipated in a narrow a plume of warm/moist air ahead of the Atlantic upper trough. Expect scattered thunderstorms in this regime, but shear should be weak, so that the severe threat will be low. Activity should gradually diminish during the day as upper support weakens.

... British Isles ...

Scattered polar-air showers should advect into the British Isles. Very sporadic lightning may accompany the stronger cells, especially close to the west coast. Activity may extend as far south as northern France.

... southern Mediterranean ...

Increasing mesoscale ascent should exist along the frontal zone over the southern and eastern Mediterranean. Given weak instability, a few presumably elevated thunderstorms may occur. Shear should be too weak to support an organized severe threat.