Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 04 Feb 2011 06:00 to Sat 05 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Feb 2011 15:19
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A zonal flow pattern evolves over most parts of Europe with rising pressure/heights over the Mediterranean. A decaying upper trough atop the warm S-Aegean Sea assists in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak background flow and some LL CAPE result in slow moving storms with an heavy rainfall and isolated tornado risk. Overall hazard will be too marginal for any level area.

Another focus for a very isolated short-lived thunderstorm will be along the tip of a rapidly eastward racing wave, affecting Scotland during the evening/early night hours. A more unstable BL may assist in better downward mixing with strong wind gusts, but environmental conditions do not yet support deep/long-lived convection. No level was yet drawn.