Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Feb 2011 06:00 to Thu 03 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Feb 2011 00:11
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A compex scenario is forecast to evolve over Europe. A ridge is stretching from the Atlantic into Western Europe and a strong zonal flow is observed at its northern flank, with series of deep lows developing thanks to the disturbances in the flow. In the association with one of them, behind the cold front, models simulate few hundreds J/kg of CAPE, likely thanks to the advection of cold, high lapse-rate airmass. Mixing ratios will be very marginal, especially further behind the front, but a short window might exist, in which weakly electrified banded convection will occur, especially to the west of Scotland.

Another area of interest will be the South-Central Mediterranean. In association with the cut off low at mid and upper levels of troposphere, in the exit region of the jet-streak at mid-levels, surface low with a very broad stratiform precipitation area along ithe weak cold front is forecast . Behind the front, a slightly unstable airmass is simulated by both GFS and ECMWF. With the synoptic scale forcing from the cut off low, scattered showers and thunderstorms might occur, albeit rather weak. Both marginal instability and weak wind shear should limit the severe potential to minimum.

The rest of Europe should experience too dry and stable condtions for thunderstorm development