Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 25 Jan 2011 06:00 to Wed 26 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Jan 2011 23:21
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for SW Turkey mainly for intense rain, strong winds and lesser extent for waterspouts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large blocking pattern over eastern Atlantic sea / western Europe will provide rather cold and stable conditions across much of Europe. Quite fast eastwards shifting deep trough over the southeastern Europe and Mediterranean will bring some convective activity in the early morning hours before it shifts out of the forecast area.

A small upper level low swings SW of Iberia with marginal instability release mostly during the daytime hours. In rather weakly sheared environment, no robust deep convection is expected, though some organized storms with threat for intense rainfall might become likely. But staying over open waters and not affecting coastal areas, so no threat level has been issued for this reason.

... SW Turkey ...

At surface, elongated low with attendant cold front should provide enough forcing within moderately sheared and marginally unstable environment eapecially over SW Turkey. Some storms will stay better organized with threat mostly for intense rain and strong winds. A marginal level 1 threat level was issued, though valid only for the first half of the forecast period.