Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 24 Jan 2011 06:00 to Tue 25 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 23 Jan 2011 23:34
Forecaster: DAHL

A level one threat was issued across SW Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A large high-pressure area, filled with cold/stable air is sprawling primarily into the western and central parts of Europe. Warm/moist air masses are present only over the very southern portions of the forecast area, namely over SW of Iberia and over the S Aegean/E Mediterranean. These regions will be the focus for convective activity on Monday.

... DISCUSSION ...

... SW Turkey ...

It seems that weak instability will persist over the southern Aegean regions and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Large scale ascent will be provided by an upper vorticity maximum which will also instigate weak cyclogenesis over the region. Though the best deep shear will remain somewhat displaced from the convection, it should be sufficient over extreme SW Turkey for organized convection. In addition, the LLS will be rather ample with 10 m/s over SW Turkey, suggesting that the coastal regions may well see a tornado or two. In addition, isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur, especially with rotating updrafts. Per current model guidance, the severe threat should highest in the local late evening hours.

... Extreme southern Portugal ...

A somewhat similar scenario exists off the S Portugese Atlantic coast. However, current guidance does not suggest that the convection will make landfall. Also, the deep shear maximum is more offset from the plume of instability than in the Aegean scenario above, suggesting that the overall severe threat is rather low. However, convective activity over extreme S Portugal should be monitored for possible organization as the 10 m/s low-level bulk shear isotach is quite close to the region where deep convection is anticipated ... suggesting that the ingredients for possibly weakly tornadic storms will be in place but only slightly offset spatially. Small deviations from the current model forecasts may easily bring the ingredients together. However, overall confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for a LVL1 threat at the moment.