Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 21 Jan 2011 06:00 to Sat 22 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Jan 2011 19:34
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Blocking high pattern over NW Europe persists with lowering geopotential heights over the central Mediterranean. With deep CAA atop the warm Mediterranean, widespread 100 to 500 J/kg SBCAPE evolve with somewhat enhanced LL CAPE present. DLS is weak, so slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and marginal hail are forecast. Don't want to exclude a few waterspouts although overall conditions remain marginal.

Maximized risk for anything more organized probably exists over the N-Tyrrhenian Sea, Corsica and Sardinia where steering flow abates and some wrap-around moisture filters in during the day. No level 1 was yet included but conditions will be closely monitored for slow moving, training thunderstorms.

An isolated, short-lived thunderstorm event is possible over N-central Norway/Sweden in the well mixed post frontal air mass, but expected low-end coverage precludes any thunderstorm areas for now.
Also, the NE Aegean Sea may see the development of numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms during the end of the forecast, as 850 hPa flow strengthens to 15m/s with influx of moist air from the south. However, no level criterion will be reached.