Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Jan 2011 06:00 to Thu 20 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Jan 2011 00:07
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

Blocking situation is forecast over Europe with a large ridge building over Western Europe, centered over the British Isles and elongated in the meridional direction. On the forward flank of this ridge, a cold airmass will advect over most of remaining Europe within the axis of the mid and upper level trough. Due to the presence of rather cold, dry and stable airmass, very little convection is forecast over Europe. Few thunderstorms might occur off the coasts of Portugal or around the Strait of Gibraltar, where few hundred J/kg of CAPE are predicted by GFS and ECMWF. Little forcing in the form of the passage of the upper level trough might initiate some convection, albeit its coverage should be very low and therefore, no thunder line is introduced. Marginal instability and very weak shear preclude any severe threat within this region.