Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 28 Dec 2010 06:00 to Wed 29 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 27 Dec 2010 23:28
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for SW Turkey mainly for excessive convective rainfall, marginal hail and strong winds.

SYNOPSIS

A cold and stable conditions prevail across much of Europe. The main feature is a decaying upper trough/low over eastern Europe with a surface front moving across Turkey and Black Sea. Another upper low cuts off from the Atlantic trough and slows down west of Iberia. It starts affecting it with SW-erly WAA towards Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, no signals for convective activity are present.

DISCUSSION

... SW Turkey ...

Turkey will be under strong SW mid-level flow which should bring some additional intense rainfall threat over complex terrain there especially in the first half of the forecast period. The activity will then shift NE-wards during the day. Given the good overlaping of moderate instability with around 20m/s of deep layer shear, organized storms will be possible, especially along/ahead of the surface front. Those will be capable of producing marginally large hail and some strong winds besides the excessive convective rainfall threat.