Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 27 Dec 2010 06:00 to Tue 28 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 26 Dec 2010 22:59
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry air masses dominate Europe. Ahead of an amplified trough, a strong south-westerly flow affects the Aegean, Turkey, and the Black Sea. Warm air masses originating from the Sahara spread into this region. Warmer air masses from the Atlantic will spread into western Europe.

DISCUSSION

Western Turkey

The warm air mass spreading into south-eastern Europe is characterized by rather steep lapse rates and dry low levels. Improving moisture is forecast over the east Mediterranean Sea as well as along a frontal boundary extending from the Aegean to the western Black Sea. Near the frontal boundary, steepening lapse rates and low-level moisture convergence are expected to build up some instability on Monday. Additional low-level lift is forecast over western Turkey given upslope flow. Storms that develop can develop into supercells given the strong vertical wind shear and favourably veering profiles. These will be capable of producing locally large hail. Excessive rain will be the most important threat as the frontal boundary will not move through-out the period.