Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 26 Dec 2010 06:00 to Mon 27 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 25 Dec 2010 19:28
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

On Sunday, deep moist convection is limited to the Mediterranean. One part of the low pressure system which was initially located over central Europe on Christmas Eve will move southeastwards across Italy. Ahead of the upper trough associated with this system, warm and moist air is advected towards the Aegean Sea region and Turkey / Bulgaria. Very low instability over the Tyrrhenian Sea and Adriatic is forecast and isolated thunder is not ruled out. A bit more instability should be located near Crete (300 - 600 J/kg) in an environment with approx. 25 m/s deep layer shear. Quite strong SRH1 / SRH3 (150 / 300 m²/s²) is in place and some storms may contain mesocyclones. CIN is relatively high with approx. -100 J/kg and as no source of strong upper level forcing should be available, initiation is quite uncertain which lowers the probability of storms. From the lapse rate and LL CAPE perspective, tornadoes should be rather unlikely despite favorable LL shear / helicity. No threat levels were issued though.