Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 25 Dec 2010 06:00 to Sun 26 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 25 Dec 2010 05:40
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Christmas.
SYNOPSIS
A high over Norway, UK and Spain, and a large low stretching between Finland and Tunisia with cores over Italy and Belarus keeps cold air present over Western Europe while warmer air is transported from the southwest into Central/Eastern Europe.
DISCUSSION
...western Turkey...
Slight instability and strong 0-3 km storm-relative helicity (300 mē/sē) combine over western Turkey. LCL heights are low and more than 12 m/s 0-1 km shear is predicted. A slight tornado chance is present. The dynamics, however, are lacking, and CAPE will probably not allow strong updrafts.
...Albania...
The axis of a jet (and a PV minimum) is over this area which creates large shear. But CAPE, SREH and low level shear seem lacking and only induced by friction.
Some waterspouts may develop over Mediterranean/Adriatic/Aegean waters.
