Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 17 Dec 2010 06:00 to Sat 18 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Dec 2010 16:14
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Large-scale cold-core vortex continues to cover most parts of Europe with a cold and dry air mass. A few, weakly electrified thunderstorms are possible over NW Europe, where well organized shallow convection keeps going. However we won't highlight such a vast area for only a sporadic, short-lived thunderstorm event.

Also over parts of the Mediterranean, a few thunderstorms occur. The east coast of the Adriatic Sea may see increasing heavy rainfall chances during the night but still not matching our warning criteria.

Only area with adequate moisture advection will be found SW of Portugal but main activity remains to the west of our forecast area. A few better organized storms are well possible along the coastal areas where interface of enhanced shear and warm/moist (unstable) onshore flow exists. An isolated tornado/heavy rainfall report are forecast with that activity during the late night hours.