Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Dec 2010 06:00 to Wed 15 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Dec 2010 17:30
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels has been issued.

SYNOPSIS DISCUSSION

A large trough over east-central Europe continues moving SSW-wards while strong upper ridge builds up over western Europe/eastern Atlantic sea. In the late afternoon hours, a powerful deep trough enters northern Norwegian sea from the NW. In the left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet to its south, a rapid cyclogenesis (a so called 'bomb/explosive' cyclogenesis) forms just east of Greenland and creates an impressive pressure gradient with a rapidly building ridge west of it. This polar trough/low will then continue moving south on Wednesday.

At surface, weak surface low translates from Turkey across Black sea where an attendant cold front is pushed across the SE Mediterranean. Marginal instability seems likely to build up along this front, but even with moderately strong shear in place, severe storms are quite limited.

Elsewhere, cold advection is pushed towards central Mediterranean. With still relatively warm SSTs of the south-central Mediterranean sea, a very steep LL lapse rates build up. Those could favour some waterspouts to occur where near-surface winds will be weaker. It seems that the highest potential lies around southern Italy, southern Adriatic sea and across SE Mediterranean sea.