Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 10 Dec 2010 06:00 to Sat 11 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 09 Dec 2010 21:37
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Aegean Sea and the E-Mediterranean mainly for heavy rainfall and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Intense upper trough over central/SE Europe continues to amplify during the forecast. A sharp upper trough axis affects the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean with strong QG forcing crossing those areas from west to east. Air mass remains weakly capped (modest SBCAPE and DLS of 10-15 m/s) with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast during the period. Main risk will be heavy rain with rapidly clustering storm activity...also large hail especially during the initiation stage. However the main bunch of storms occurs to the east of our forecast area.

Otherwise no organized DMC is forecast. Especially the western Balkan states could see a short period during peak heating where a few storms evolve within marginal CAPE/strong shear environment. Sub-severe hail accompanies stronger storms.