Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 04 Dec 2010 06:00 to Sun 05 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Dec 2010 04:19
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for Greece and W Turkey for a combined low chance of severe gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

While the majority of Europe is still under the influence of a cold stable airmass, a frontal wave with warm air on its east side flowing northeastward lies over the southern Balkan. The main upper low is centered over Italy. The deeper instability is calculated over Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea, and under the jet a strong vertical shear is present, along with veering with height. The shear parameters could be strong enough to allow an isolated tornado within the level 1 area, and severe wind gusts are also possible.
From the west, a new warm unstable airmass approaches Portugal with thundery activity, and also around northern Ireland and northern UK convection can reach higher with possible instances of thunder.