Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 20 Nov 2010 06:00 to Sun 21 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 20 Nov 2010 05:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 has been issued for SE France for a chance of local excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area over the Bay of Biscay sends its cold front eastward along with an mid level shortwave trough and will mainly affect the southern France coastal region. Significant lifting is present here due to mid level vorticity (and PV) maximum and warm air advection in lower levels. Some CAPE is forecast over the northern Mediterranean, only one or two hundred J/kg, but is probably going to result in storms in the second half of the period, also because of coastal convergence and orographic lifting. While precipitable water content is not high, persistence may locally result in high precipitation sums.
The north coast of Spain could experience a few severe gusts associated with convection in the late afternoon/early evening.