Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 06 Nov 2010 06:00 to Sun 07 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 06 Nov 2010 02:26
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for eastern Tunisia and Malta mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The colder northern Europe is separated from the warmer southern Europe by a long WSW-ENE oriented frontal region along 45°-52°N embedded in the westerly flow. The cold air and the front move deeper into Europe during the period.
Low pressure disturbances affect N-Ireland/UK and the southern Baltic region, but instability seems very marginal. A slight chance of a tornado is present for the Lithuania area if any convection could form at the occlusion which is overspread by a strong jet and reasonable to good low-level shear values.

More active is the weather around Tunisia and west of Malta with some 250-1250 J/kg MLCAPE but also capping. To the south and toward the end of the forecast period near Malta the deep layer shear is good (>20 m/s) which may enhance convective strength (organization and rotation) with isolated large hail possible.