Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 04 Nov 2010 06:00 to Fri 05 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Nov 2010 21:25
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A strong westerly jet extends from the British Isles to Belarus. It is associated with a frontal wave that travels eastward over southern Scandinavia. Current models do expect that the warm and rather moist air will remain over Germany, where rather stable lapse rates are expected to limit the potential for deep moist convection. Farther north, the limited boundary-layer moisture is expected to be the most important limiting factor that leads to the absence of CAPE. Over the Mediterranean, a cut-off low will move south-ward. Although large-scale sinking is expected to affect the central Mediterranean, the easterly low-level flow and embedded convergences will provide low-level forcing. Given a moist and slightly unstable air mass, showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the southern Mediterranean Sea. Along the main convergence zone that moves westward to the south of Italy intense thunderstorms may develop. This is supported by north-easterly surface winds and strong southerly winds at mid-levels, resulting in 15 m/s 0-3km vertical wind shear. An MCS may form. The potential for severe weather seems to be rather low given the rather weak vertical wind shear.