Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 29 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sat 30 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 28 Oct 2010 17:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Portugal and SW-Spain mainly for heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large trough enters W-Europe with strengthening SW-erly flow ahead. A cold front stretches from Scotland all the way to Spain with good kinematic support but weak to non-existent CAPE. Hence, only an isolated clap of thunder is forecast with the main hazard being strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

A small thunder area was introduced over extreme SW-France due to the chance for a strongly forced line of showers/isolated storms to come ashore during the night. Main risk again will be strong wind gusts.

Connected to a moist air mass, heavy rain accompanies eastward moving cold front over Portugal and SW Spain. Again, meager CAPE precludes anything severe/more organized. Nevertheless, a level 1 was issued. Another area of interest regarding heavy rain evolves over S-France during the end of the outlook, but limited time-frame precludes any level area for now.
It has to be noted that the global model indicates transient spots along the front, where 0-3 km CAPE will be augmented, so an isolated spin-up can't be ruled out. However, I won't issue a large level area for such a spotty risk.

No thunderstorms risk for the rest of Europe.