Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 23 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sun 24 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 22 Oct 2010 21:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for S/SE UK and the coast of Belgium and the Netherlands mainly for isolated severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Main feature of interest is a new trough over western Europe with a rapidly developing depression moving off the eastern UK coast towards Denmark until 24th 06Z. A cold front crosses S/SE UK already during the morning hours with strong to isolated severe wind gusts and marginal hail. An isolated tornado event along the coastal areas is possible with onshore flow and good veering along the front itself. The same risk also exists along the coast of Belgium, the Netherlands and NW-Germany thereafter. During the night, it becomes more difficult to distinguish a convectively enhanced gust from the intensifying background wind field and with very limited CAPE in place, no organized DMC is forecast.

Conditions for thunderstorms become more supportive SW of Sicily (00Z onwards) with scattered to widespread thunderstorms gradually developing. However no severe is forecast with marginal shear and modest CAPE.

The rest of Europe remains covered by a cool/cold and modified continental air mass with limited to non-existing thunderstorm probabilities.