Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 22 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sat 23 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 21 Oct 2010 17:18
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and parts of extreme western Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A more zonal flow pattern has established over Europe. Latest intrusion of dry continental air affects all of Europe despite the southern most parts, including the S-Mediterranean.

The only area of interest will be Ireland and SW-UK during the night, as a deepening low approaches from the west. Models reveal some run-to-run inconsistency in respect of how well developed the theta-e tongue in the warm sector/ahead of the cold front will be, so CAPE remains uncertain. Shear is strong enough for a few severe wind gusts, especially during the cold front passage, but otherwise no DMC is forecast for now.

We issued a level 1 for parts of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for a limited time frame : 09-15Z. Some slight SBCAPE evolves in strongly sheared warm sector with EL temperatures dropping to -20 to -30°C. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event will be the main hazard with weakly electrified thunderstorms or showers.