Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sun 17 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 16 Oct 2010 03:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Tunisia, Malta and southern Sicily mainly for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for Crete to SW Turkey mainly for large hail.
Locally along the Mediterranean coasts excessive convective rainfall may occur, as well as waterspouts.
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure and unstable airmass remain in place over the central/southern and eastern Mediterranean. The jetstream is found on the south side of this airmass with some overlap. Around a high pressure system over the Atlantic and British Isles, an upper low entered Germany early Saturday, after which a cold northeasterly flow establishes over western Europe. The cold front belonging to this system moves over western Germany and France southwards and reaches Spain around midnight.
DISCUSSION
...Tunisia, Malta and southern Sicily...
With 20 m/s deep layer shear and up to 200 mē/sē 0-3 km SREH and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, supercells can develop and bring large hail. A tornado is also not excluded, but low-level shear is not stronger than 10 m/s. For triggering the GFS model shows large scale lifting and convergence zones near the surface, however, on the south side the parcels may be capped or elevated due to warm air and steep mid level lapse rates.
...Crete to SW Turkey...
With similar deep layer shear conditions as the above area, but not SREH and low level shear, organized multicells or perhaps a supercell may cause large hail and possibly excessive precipitation.
No levels were specifically issued for excessive convective rain because of relatively weak moisture transport, precipitable water and CAPE.
