Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sat 16 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Oct 2010 20:22
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Aegean Sea and W-Turkey mainly for isolated severe wind gusts and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cyclonic vortex is centered over NE Europe with lower geopotential heights overspreading all of Europe. This set-up assists in a far southward spreading cold and partially stable air mass....all the way to the Mediterranean, where a west-east aligned baroclinic zone evolves. Along and south of this baroclinic zone, scattered showers/thunderstorms develop in a meager CAPE/weak shear environment. Despite an isolated stronger multicell, thunderstorms remain weakly organized with strong wind gusts and marginal hail.

Somewhat stronger shear exists in the level 1 area, but only a few strong to isolated severe wind gusts and large hail reports are expected. Also, slow storm motion may cause a few heavy rainfall events.