Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 02 Aug 2010 13:00 to Tue 03 Aug 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 02 Aug 2010 13:47
Forecaster: DAHL

A level 2 was issued for NE Spain mainly for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for a strip from NE Spain to NW Poland, mainly for excessive rainfall, damaging winds, and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for W Finland mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

See previous discussion.

DISCUSSION

Several adjustments to the previous outlook have become necessary.

... SE Germany ... W Czech Republic ... W Poland ...

The models are in agreement that an MCS will develop later today, but it seems that overall thermodynamic support is quite weak, in addition to rather patchy maxima of 15-20 m/s DLR shear. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will likely occur, but the main threat should be heavy rainfall. The probabilities of these severe weather elements should be within the scope of a LVL, however.

... NE Spain ...

Confidence in convective development has increased based on weak capping in the Barcelona 12Z ascent. Latest satellite imagery suggests that first towers are currently developing. These storms will likely evolve into supercells, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition, local flash flooding may occur.

... W Finland ...

DLS between 15 - 20 m/s and patchy maxima of 10 m/s LLS exist over W Finland. Thunderstorms developing in this environment may at least briefly become mesocyclonic and pose a threat of isolated severe wind gusts and also a brief tornado or two. A LVL1 threat is marginally warranted.