Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 28 Jun 2010 06:00 to Tue 29 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Jun 2010 17:42
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Ukraine, N-Moldova and NE-Romania mainly for large hail and locally excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Over Europe, weak geopotential height gradients prevail. An upper low over SE Europe remains in place as frontal zone over Ireland/UK/Scotland strengthens. Mid-/upper levels are still cool enough for moderate to steep lapse rates, enough for adequate CAPE build-up.

We won't reflect high CAPE amounts over France in our forecast strategy, as BL air mass (in model data) seems to be too moist compared to latest synop reports. Even with some moisture recovery at LL, moisture layer will be quite shallow, prone to mixing. 500 to 1000 J/kg are forecast in N-Spain, France and N-Italy. Shear is non existent, so pulse storms with strong wind gusts and marginal hail will be the main hazard. Also, locally excessive rainfall is possible, given rapid clustering and slow storm motion.

The same for SE/E-Europe. Central Ukraine may see a few organized storms due to enhanced 0-3km shear, supportive for a few large hail reports.

An isolated large hail event is possible ober central Norway/Sweden and N-Algeria, as shear is somewhat better, but nothing too widespread to go with a level 1.