Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Jun 2010 06:00 to Sat 26 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jun 2010 16:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A shallow ridge affects W-Europe beneath gradually lowering geopotential heights. In fact, geopotential heights decrease over most parts of Europe, as various more or less defined troughs/short waves affect the forecast area. For the past few days, BL air mass had some time to recover and some moisture advection took place at mid-levels over W-Europe, so overall thunderstorm coverage increases over many places. Initiation occurs at numerous spots, along mountain ranges, where regionally better BL air mass quality or forcing is present and along weak frontal boundaries.

Shear/CAPE fields remain modest at best, so nothing organized is expected in this forecast package. Estonia/Latvia, NW/N-Italy and Spain will have the best CAPE build-up for isolated stronger updrafts with large hail and strong wind gusts.

After sunset, thunderstorms gradually decrease in coverage and intensity.